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30 July 2025

The end of USAID: a silent earthquake and a geopolitical shift for Central Africa

Cameroon, Chad, DRC: between the US strategic vacuum and the rise of new global players. On July 1, 2025, the dismantling of USAID (United States Agency for International Development) became effective. This decision, announced in February by the Trump administration, resulted in the elimination of 83% of the agency’s global programs. For sub-Saharan Africa, this is a seismic shift: the region absorbed nearly 40% of USAID’s annual budget, or nearly $7.5 billion in 2023. Cameroon, Chad, the DRC, the Central African Republic, and Congo-Brazzaville are directly impacted. A multisectoral shockwave In Cameroon, more than 127 projects were underway in 2024, mainly in the health (38%), education (21%) and local governance strengthening (17%) sectors. In 2022, USAID was still financing the purchase of 4.2 million doses of pediatric vaccines, supporting 43 local NGOs, and contributing more than 18% of external funding for the fight against HIV/AIDS. “The US withdrawal weakens already precarious systems and creates a vacuum that other powers will seek to fill,” warns Cameroonian political scientist Jean-Paul Nlo’o. Strategic risks and shift in influence This disengagement marks a clear decline in US soft power to the benefit of actors such as China, which is present through its health infrastructure, and Russia, through security training and military cooperation. In terms of economic intelligence, this situation reshuffles the deck: Loss of access to strategic data on vulnerable populations; Reconfiguration of aid and dependency flows (shift towards the BRICS and the Gulf); Opportunity for new private operators to enter the pharmaceutical, digital health, and agri-food markets. Towards resilience under constraint Local economies, already marked by informality (nearly 85% of employment in Cameroon), must adapt. In the absence of USAID, “plan B” mechanisms are being activated: “The next Cameroonian government will have to reposition development aid as a lever of influence and attractiveness, not just a social safety net,” says Mireille Ngako, an economic intelligence expert in Yaoundé. Proposed responses A national repositioning strategy could include: Ultimately, the end of USAID should not be seen solely as a crisis, but as a test of strategic resilience for Central Africa and a window of opportunity to redefine its international partnerships.

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Ivory Coast: Ouattara, a new candidacy and invisible opponents

Ivory Coast: Ouattara, a new candidacy and invisible opponents Between international silence and domestic resignation, a democracy under control. The unofficial announcement of President Alassane Ouattara’s new candidacy for the 2025 presidential election has reignited the debate on political longevity in West Africa. At 83, the Ivorian head of state appears ready to run for a fourth term, in a political climate marked by the weakening of the opposition and the normalization of power. Since the controversial 2020 presidential election, when Ouattara’s candidacy had already sparked tensions (with more than 85 deaths in clashes), the opposition has struggled to organize. Henri Konan Bédié has died, Laurent Gbagbo remains marginalized despite his return, and emerging figures lack popular support and institutional backing. “The political space is locked down, protest is turning into resignation,” says a political analyst based in Abidjan. Strategic silence from Western partners France, a traditional partner, is taking a cautious stance, preferring stability to democratic uncertainty. Paris is focusing on security and economic cooperation (with more than €3.5 billion in bilateral trade in 2023), while avoiding direct criticism. The European Union has not issued any official statement, despite warnings from NGOs about the risks of authoritarian drift. The United States, focused on the Sahel, is adopting a minimalist stance, praising “economic stability” without mentioning political governance. A variable geometry democracy This new turning point raises geopolitical questions about the evolution of political models in French-speaking Africa. While pan-Africanist and anti-French rhetoric is becoming more radical in the Sahelian countries, Côte d’Ivoire embodies a form of directed stability, tolerated and even supported by Western partners, despite concerns about political change. “The risk is that this succession of terms will set a lasting precedent in a region already experiencing institutional tension,” says researcher Véronique Aubert of the Geneva Center for Diplomatic Studies. Alassane Ouattara’s candidacy could thus reinforce democratic frustrations, fuel populist rhetoric, and accentuate the disenchantment of African youth with the electoral process.

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Cameroon: Focus on growth, industrial lever activated

Faced with the challenges of financing and economic transformation, the country is focusing on increasing the mobilization of its internal resources, industrialization, and the optimization of its human, natural, and financial capital. The African Development Bank (AfDB) warns that Cameroon must take decisive action to transform its potential into a driver of sustainable development. In its 2025 Country Report, presented in Yaoundé on July 28, the institution highlights the levers for growth, starting with increased mobilization of domestic resources. According to the report, GDP growth is projected at 3.6% in 2024 and could reach 4.2% in 2025 if structural reforms are effectively implemented. “Cameroon has significant natural, human, and financial capital, but its impact on growth remains below expectations. It is time to make the most of this capital” said Ameth Saloum Ndiaye, the AfDB’s lead country economist. Key recommendations include the gradual reduction of fuel subsidies (around 2% of GDP in 2023), increased digitization of tax administrations, the restructuring of 27 strategic public enterprises, and the adoption of a National Integrated Financing Strategy (SNFI) to diversify sources of financing. “There is an urgent need to make the tax system more equitable and efficient,” added Godwill Kan Tange, national economist. In 2022, more than 590 billion CFA francs were granted in tax exemptions, representing approximately 2.7% of GDP, a level considered unsustainable. At the same time, the manufacturing sector grew by 6.8%, illustrating the potential for industrialization. The Secretary General of the Ministry of Economy, Jean Tchoffo, praised the relevance of the proposals: “This report comes at a key moment, as Cameroon is conducting a mid-term review of the implementation of the SND30. It will help to restore solid growth and accelerate the structural transformation of our economy.” The AfDB also emphasizes the importance of human capital development: in 2023, the youth unemployment rate reached 13.1% and the informal sector employed nearly 88% of the working population. Investment in training, regional infrastructure, and local processing of commodities is seen as strategic. “Cameroon holds all the cards. What it needs now is rigorous implementation of reforms and better coordination among stakeholders” concluded Mamadou Tangara, AfDB Director General for Central Africa.

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Cameroon faces the challenge of school football: a model to be developed?

While Niger and the Central African Republic are innovating with FIFA, Cameroon is lagging behind in integrating soccer as a lever for educational and social development. On July 26, 2025, Niger became one of the first two African countries to sign FIFA’s “Soccer for Schools” program, an ambitious agreement aimed at integrating soccer into the school system. This initiative, which combines teacher training, educational content, tournaments, and monitoring and evaluation, is hailed as a decisive step toward a more inclusive, civic-minded education rooted in the social realities of young Africans. In comparison, Cameroon, despite being a major football nation, has not yet embarked on a similar structural approach. While initiatives do exist through certain local NGOs, training clubs, and one-off projects by the Cameroonian Football Federation (Fecafoot), they remain isolated and lack institutional anchoring in the national education system. Yet the stakes are immense. Cameroon has more than 10 million young people under the age of 25, representing more than 40% of the population. In a context of youth unemployment estimated at more than 13% and an informal sector dominated by precarious employment, coaching young people through sport appears to be an under-exploited avenue for social inclusion and mobilization. Experts such as Patrick Mboma, a former international player who has turned his attention to sports development, are calling for “football to be used as a tool for citizenship and education.” He advocates close cooperation between the Ministry of Education, the Ministry of Sports, and Fécafoot in order to implement a model adapted to the Cameroonian context. Beyond personal development, such a policy could stimulate job creation in the sports sector, strengthen local infrastructure, and promote regional sports diplomacy. Niger’s success could therefore serve as a revelation for Cameroon: what if the future of Cameroonian soccer lay in schools?

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Published in Cameroon. Bilingual: French & English.

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